Forest Oil – Watch For THE OIL Production – then Buy

Thesis: The ability to come in and ramp up production by spending heavily on drilling and infrastructure is what allows for the economics to work well. Substantial crude production is coming, just not yet.

Forest Oil continues to spend big dollars to produce too much natural gas – ” shooting themselves in the foot ” as I have said for the other producers like CHK.

Forest does have big league oil shale acreage positions with 118,000 acres in the Eagle Ford and 51,000 acres in the Wolfcamp. Forest intends to work hard on the science in these two plays . The Eagle Ford is further along than the Wolfcamp in this respect, but the company still needs to crack the code in the Eagle Ford and get IPs higher. Further, Forest is open to joint venture the Eagle Ford which would provide the needed capital to ramp up development. Forest Oil’s excellent oil properties can be described as immature in getting development roaring.

Third quarter 2011 results were a seven well IP average of 15MMcfe/d of which 45% was liquids. These results are strong However, natural gas is . Hthe majority and liquids command half the price of crude oil. with Apache’s announced purchase of Cordillera the value of this asset in Forest with the stock responding by rising 6%.

In the Haynesville Forest has 169,000 acres. In a surprise move last fall Forest moved one rig here. The idea behind resuming drilling is the production results being so strong from the restricted rate program from 2010. Perhaps the capital efficient capex helps to inflate production numbers, but the economics were skinny last fall. With the continued deterioration in natural gas pricing the program must be uneconomic.

Forest Oil has a depressed stock price, down some 65% from the 52 week high. Perhaps the chief reason is the manner in which Forest did a crazy IPO and dividend of Lone Pine Resources (LPR) in 2011. Forest’s large asset base does have a high debt load, though expect them to grow into the debt nicely without any solvency concern and no worrisome debt maturities until the end of this decade.

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